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AguaFuturo - Integrated Water Resources Modeling
Future Risks and Adaptation Strategies in the Andes of Peru


Water resources in high mountains play a fundamental role for societies and ecosystems. A growing number of studies assess impacts in recent and future snow and ice related river runoff due to climate change and socioeconomic shifts in major mountain ranges and adjacent downstream areas. In parallel, adaptation strategies to reduce existing and projected water supply-demand deficits have been developed. However, comprehensive analyses of risks related to water resources considering climate change within multi-dimensional drivers across different scales are complex and often missing in climate sensitive mountain regions where data scarcity represents important limitations.

This collaborative project will address the challenge by combining internationally leading expertise from Switzerland and Germany in strong collaboration with partners of the study region. It proposes coupling multi-source hydro-climatic (water supply) and socio-economic (water demand) data in a water balance modelling framework. As an integrative case study, the methodology will be tested in the Andes of Peru, where water risk issues are of highest relevance. The project will develop methods for spatially and temporally interpolation and downscaling of hydro-climatic data (observed and projected). In parallel, scenarios will be developed in a participatory process by means of the Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB). Finally, related water risks for different economic sectors and social groups will be assessed, considering resilience and limits to adaptation. Risk evaluation, and development and evaluation of adaptation strategies will be undertaken using a participatory approach involving local stakeholders.

The project addresses several key scientific gaps related to the analysis of current and future water risks in data-scarce mountain regions. Methodologies and conceptual approaches can be transferred to other regions with similar water risks and sparse data. Local collaboration with public and private water research and management institutions and engagement of local stakeholders ensures to promote the exchange of local and scientific knowledge and provide a basis for implementation of results at the policy level.

Project partners are the University of Zurich (GIUZ, coordinator) and IWS University of Stuttgart.








Funding: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
Project duration: September 2016 – August 2019
Staff: Christian D. León
Contact: Christian D. León
(christian.leon(a)zirius.uni-stuttgart.de)
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